EM Spread Curve Analytics

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Color by: Pair Arcs Labels

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Spread Curve

NIP Estimator

Tenor: yr NIP: bps

Historical Curve Shape

Bond-Level Detail

Bond	Rating	TTM	OAS	Fitted	Residual

Bond History

Computing regime detection, clustering & basis signals...

Running HMM regime detection, GMM clustering, and basis z-scores

Computing multi-dimensional RV metrics...

Multi-Lens Signal Concordance

Ticker	Country	Sector	Rating	Spread	vs Sov	vs Rating	vs Cluster	Curve Shape	# Agree	Direction

Quasi/Corp vs Sovereign Basis

Quasi/Corp	vs Sov	Country	Sector	Tenor	Sov Spd	Q/C Spd	Basis	Z-Score	Signal	Raw Ref	Raw Q/C	Raw Basis

Rating-Tenor Benchmarks (bps)

Rating	2Y	5Y	10Y	Slope	N

Cluster Benchmarks (bps)

Cluster	2Y	5Y	10Y	Slope	N

Spread vs Rating-Tenor Bucket

Ticker	Country	Sector	Rating	Tenor	Spread	Bucket Avg	Diff	Z-Score	Signal

Raw OAS vs Rating-Tenor Bucket (Bond-Level)

Ticker	Bond	Country	Rating	TTM	Bucket	OAS	Bucket Avg	Diff	Z-Score	Signal

Spread vs Behavioral Cluster

Ticker	Country	Cluster	Tenor	Spread	Cluster Avg	Diff	Z-Score	Signal

Raw OAS vs Cluster Bucket (Bond-Level)

Ticker	Bond	Country	Cluster	TTM	Bucket	OAS	Cluster Avg	Diff	Z-Score	Signal

Curve Shape Analysis (Current Slopes, bps)

Ticker	Country	Sector	3s5s	5s10s	10s30s	5Y Fly

Raw Bond Slopes (Nearest Actual Bonds, bps)

Ticker	Country	Sector	3Y OAS	5Y OAS	10Y OAS	30Y OAS	3s5s	5s10s	10s30s	5Y Fly

Computing macro factor sensitivities...

Building weekly spread changes and estimating per-issuer betas

Macro Factor Sensitivity Map

Bubble size = R² | How each issuer's spread responds to Oil and USD moves

Scenario Impact Tool

Oil % DXY % US Real bps MOVE % VIX % S&P %

Ticker	Country	Sector	Oil Grp	Cur 5Y	Δ Spread	New 5Y

Issuer Macro Betas

Ticker	Country	Sector	Rating	Oil Grp	Oil β	DXY β	US Real β	MOVE β	VIX β	S&P β	R²	N

▶ Macro Sensitivity Heatmap (click to expand)

Computing composite RV scores across all lenses...

Computing cross-country spread convergence pairs...

Loading novel signal backtests...

Computing bond liquidity scores...

Scanning bond pairs for dislocations...

Computing spread differentials and z-scores across within-issuer and cross-issuer pairs

Computing corp-sov basis z-scores...

Matching each corp/quasi bond to nearest-maturity sovereign and computing basis history

Basis Wideners (Corp Getting Cheaper vs Sov)

Ticker	Country	Sector	Rating	TTM	OAS	Sov Match	Sov TTM	Sov OAS	TTM Diff	Basis	Z-Score	Signal

Basis Compressors (Corp Getting Richer vs Sov)

Ticker	Country	Sector	Rating	TTM	OAS	Sov Match	Sov TTM	Sov OAS	TTM Diff	Basis	Z-Score	Signal

Trading Through Sovereign (Negative Basis)

Ticker	Country	Sector	Rating	TTM	OAS	Sov Match	Sov TTM	Sov OAS	TTM Diff	Basis	Z-Score	Signal

Bond Detail

Computing convergence analysis...

Loading residuals and running backtest across all windows

Window Comparison — All

Window	Events	CHEAP	CHEAP Hit%	CHEAP Med Δ	CHEAP Max Δ	RICH	RICH Hit%	RICH Med Δ	RICH Max Δ	Avg \|Δ\|	Max \|Δ\|	Conv%	Med Days	P25	P75

Window Comparison — IG

Window	Events	CHEAP Hit%	RICH Hit%	Conv%	Med Days	Profit%

Window Comparison — HY

Window	Events	CHEAP Hit%	RICH Hit%	Conv%	Med Days	Profit%

Cross-Lens Comparison (6m window)

Lens	Signal	Events	Profit%	Conv%	Med Days	Avg \|Δ\|	Med \|Δ\|	Min \|Δ\|	Max \|Δ\|	P5	P95	Up Max Δ	Down Max Δ

Lens 2: Basis Convergence (Quasi/Corp vs Sovereign)

Window	Events	WIDE	WIDE Hit%	WIDE Med Δ	WIDE Max Δ	TIGHT	TIGHT Hit%	TIGHT Med Δ	TIGHT Max Δ	Avg \|Δ\|	Max \|Δ\|	Conv%	Med Days	Profit%

Lens 5: 5Y Butterfly

Window	Events	STEEP Hit%	STEEP Med Δ	STEEP Max Δ	INV Hit%	INV Med Δ	INV Max Δ	Avg \|Δ\|	Max \|Δ\|	Conv%	Med Days	Profit%

Regional Profit Rate

Regional Speed (Median Days)

Country Convergence

Country	Region	Events	Bonds	Conv%	Med Days	Profit%	Med \|Δ\|

Issuer Convergence

Ticker	Country	Sector	Events	Bonds	Conv%	Med Days	Profit%	Med \|Δ\|	Score

Loading contagion network data...

Fitting Bayesian HMM regime model...

Loading oil transmission analysis...

Loading scenario stress analysis...

Loading IMF Article IV briefs...

EM Spread Curve Analytics

Top RV Trades

Alerts & Movers

Composite RV Signals

Country Detail

Morning Pulse

Select an issuer to view its spread curve

Spread Curve

NIP Estimator

Historical Curve Shape

Bond-Level Detail

Bond History

Market Regime Timeline

HMM Regime Probability Bands

Macro Stress Decomposition

Behavioral Clusters

Sov-Quasi-Corp Basis Signals

Multi-Lens Signal Concordance

Quasi/Corp vs Sovereign Basis

Rating-Tenor Benchmarks (bps)

Cluster Benchmarks (bps)

Spread vs Rating-Tenor Bucket

Raw OAS vs Rating-Tenor Bucket (Bond-Level)

Spread vs Behavioral Cluster

Raw OAS vs Cluster Bucket (Bond-Level)

Curve Shape Analysis (Current Slopes, bps)

Raw Bond Slopes (Nearest Actual Bonds, bps)

Macro Factor Sensitivity Map

Scenario Impact Tool

Issuer Macro Betas

▶ Macro Sensitivity Heatmap (click to expand)

Composite RV Leaderboard

Cross-Country Dislocations

Alpha Lab — Novel Signals

Bond Liquidity Scores

Within-Issuer Curve Pairs

Cross-Issuer RV Pairs

Pair Detail

Basis Wideners (Corp Getting Cheaper vs Sov)

Basis Compressors (Corp Getting Richer vs Sov)

Trading Through Sovereign (Negative Basis)

Bond Detail

Signal Quality: Decay Profile & ML Classifier

Window Comparison — All

Window Comparison — IG

Window Comparison — HY

Cross-Lens Comparison (6m window)

Lens 2: Basis Convergence (Quasi/Corp vs Sovereign)

Lens 5: 3s5s Slope

Lens 5: 5s10s Slope

Lens 5: 10s30s Slope

Lens 5: 5Y Butterfly

Regional Profit Rate

Regional Speed (Median Days)

Country Convergence

Issuer Convergence

Rolling Centrality (63d window, top 20)

STATIC PERIOD COMPARISON (below)

Spread Correlation Network

Centrality Comparison: Pre-Conflict vs Conflict

HMM State Probabilities (Last 1Y)

Transition Matrix

20-Day Regime Forecast

HMM vs Z-Score Regime Comparison

Granger Causality: Oil → Country Spreads

Impulse Response: Oil Shock

Impulse Response: VIX Shock

Lead-Lag Cross-Correlations (Oil → Spreads)

Scenario Impact by Issuer

Expected Value Analysis (Probability-Weighted)

IMF Article IV Country Briefs

Country Detail